There is a need to further increase the vaccination rate and to shorten the duration from detection to isolation of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases amid projections that spike in cases will continue in the coming days.
Citing forecast by experts, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said active cases in Metro Manila could reach 66,000 by August 31 and at least 269,000 by September 30 if the modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) would be implemented until the end of next month.
Aside from vaccination and immediate isolation for the infected, Vergeire underscored the need to strictly observe the minimum public health standard, including the wearing of masks even for vaccinated people.
“Ito pong mga projections natin base po yan sa tatlong factors na yan so kung sakaling mai-improve nang maayos ‘yan tayo po ay magkakaroon ng pagbaba ng kaso. (Our projections are based on these three factors so if we’ll be able to improve these, we could see a decrease in cases),” she said in a Laging Handa briefing.
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But Vergeire clarified that these projections are merely based on assumptions and do not necessarily mean active cases will reach those numbers by end of August and September.
“So yung assumptions natin dito kung atin pong mai-improve ang ating vaccination, ang ating case detection to isolation at saka ating compliance to minimum public health standard beyond doon sa pinasok natin sa assumptions natin ay maipapababa pa natin ito so ibig sabihin hindi naman talaga certain na mangyayari na ‘yan (If we improve our vaccination, case detection to isolation, and compliance to minimum public health standard beyond our assumptions, we can lower the cases further, so it does not mean that these projections are certain),” she said.
Dr. Edsel Maurice Salvana, infectious diseases expert and member of the DOH Technical Advisory Group, underscored that wearing a mask and following the health protocols delay a person’s exposure to SARS-CoV-2 but topping it with vaccination “decreases the risk of severe disease by 90 percent” and dying by a factor of 10.
“Delta has completely changed the equation. It is no longer a question of whether or not you will be exposed to Delta, but when. You can delay it by wearing your mask and the rest of your armor. But a variant as contagious as chickenpox will eventually find a way to ambush you when you least expect it,” he said on his official social media page.
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“When that happens, please make sure you are vaccinated,” he said, adding that vaccinated people, 60 years old and above have a decreased risk of dying from 10 percent to 1; and 0.1 percent from 1 percent for those between 18 to 60 years old.
But he said even vaccinated individuals must still wear masks.
“This is because our vaccines are less able to protect against transmission. Even vaccinated elderly can still die from Covid, so we still want to protect them since 1 percent risk of dying (compared to 10 percent for unvaccinated) is still a high number for risk of death from an infection. We want to protect the unvaccinated and partially vaccinated from infection until all can get fully vaccinated,” he added.
