The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) forecasts above-normal rainfall across Metro Manila and other parts of the country in the final three months of the year, attributing this to the potential onset of the La Niña phenomenon.
“La Niña may develop by October, November, or December. We may see the possible impact of La Niña because there is a high probability of having above-normal rainfall conditions in most parts of the country,” PAGASA’s climate monitoring and prediction section chief Ana Liza Solis said.
As of June 24, PAGASA’s predictions indicate that Metro Manila could experience above-normal rainfall conditions, equivalent to 146.4% of normal rainfall in October, 149.8% in November, and 163.7% in December.
Similar conditions are anticipated for Calabarzon and Mimaropa during the October-December period, with above-normal rainfall expected across most of the Philippines in December.
PAGASA categorizes rainfall conditions into four categories: way below normal (≤40% of average), below-normal (41%–80%), near-normal (81%–120%), and above-normal (>120%). These categories are determined by dividing the forecasted rainfall by the normal rainfall and multiplying by 100%.
Initially projected for later in the year, PAGASA suggests a 55% chance that the La Niña phenomenon will occur between October and December, potentially lasting until the first quarter of 2025.
La Niña is marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and typically correlates with above-normal rainfall conditions.
