Despite the push for Metro Manila to shift to a more relaxed Modified General Community Quarantine (MGCQ), researchers from the OCTA group are sounding the alarm on the increase in new COVID-19 cases in the region.
In its February 20 report, the research team said that while the overall trend in the Philippines and NCR was flat, the reproduction number in Metro Manila increased to 1.13 in the past week.
The reproduction number refers to the continuous transmission of the virus in one area.
Based on the OCTA report, the NCR reported an average of 430 new COVID-19 cases daily for the past seven days. This is a 16 percent increase from the previous average of 370 cases per day.
Some cities in Metro Manila also recorded an increase in cases in the recent weeks.
“This increase may be due to the Chinese New Year or Valentine’s day effects. It cannot be ruled out that a SARS-Cov2 variant is involved in the sudden spikes,” they said.
Dr. Guido David of the OCTA Research Team said that they understand the need to boost the economy and the need to open up businesses but it should be gradual and take into consideration the possible risks such as a surge in the number of COVID-19 cases.
“Gusto nating i-balance ang pagbubukas sa risk sa public health. Ayaw rin naman natin na ‘pag nagkaroon ng pagtaas ng bilang ng kaso e mapipilitan tayong bumalik sa ECQ (enhanced community quarantine) o MECQ (modified enhanced community quarantine),” David said.
David said that reopening the economy all at once will be a great risk for the country amid the pandemic and without any vaccine rollout actually happening.
“Ayaw na natin bumalik dun kasi mas costly ‘yun sa ekonomiya natin ‘pag nangyari ‘yun and may possibility na mangyari ‘yun kapag nagtake tayo ng masyadong malaking risk,” David said.
David noted that a number of vital establishments are now open under the current community quarantine.
“Kahit naman naka-GCQ tayo marami na tayong binubuksan na economic business sector, dinadagdagan natin. Pwede naman nating dagdagan ang public transportation sa halip na i-increase ang capacity,” he said.
