The OCTA research group is projecting that the country may record over 6,500 new daily COVID-19 cases by the end of March.
The group is urging local government units to be more proactive in imposing stricter measures to prevent the virus spread.
The team of researchers said Metro Manila alone may record up to over 4,000 new daily COVID-19 infections at the end of the month.
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The Philippines has also an increasing reproduction number (R) in the region at 1.86.
The R number indicates the rate of spread of the disease. An R-value above 1 can lead to exponential growth.
“In the February 17 report, the number of new COVID-19 cases in NCR was projected to reach 2,000 on March 22. It appears that the current trend is faster, as the region tallied nearly 2,000 cases on March 11, 11 days earlier than projected,” the experts said.
“It is important that the increase in new cases in the NCR be curbed in order to avoid a high number of new cases in NCR and to prevent overwhelming the hospitals of NCR and the regions surrounding NCR (Cavite, Rizal, Bulacan),” the group added.
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The researchers also pointed out that the average daily attack rate (ADAR) in the region is now at 11 per 100,000. This puts the region at “high risk,” they said.
Local chief executives in the Metro on Thursday night agreed to reintroduce a two-week curfew hours starting on Monday, March 15, in a bid to contain the virus.
“Localized lockdowns have been shown to be effective in slowing down increasing trends in new cases. Additional restrictions such as curfews, border controls, reduced capacity in certain establishments, limitations in social gatherings… as well as continued monitoring and strict implementation by the local governments will hopefully slow down the rate of infection in NCR,” the report read. (TDT)
