The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has forecasted a weak La Niña to develop in the country between December and January.
According to the weather bureau, there is a 74% probability of this occurrence, as La Niña-like conditions are already present in the Tropical Pacific.
PAGASA’s climate monitoring and prediction section chief Ana Solis said that this weak La Niña would persist until the first quarter of 2025. Meanwhile, a full-blown La Niña is unlikely.
In December, the Philippines is expected to experience near to above-normal rainfall, particularly concentrated in the eastern regions. This will be attributed to possible tropical cyclones, localized thunderstorms, and the northeast monsoon.
Regions like Bicol, Eastern Visayas, MIMAROPA, and Southern Luzon are expected to experience near to above-normal rainfall levels during this period.
Moreover, December could experience one to two tropical cyclones.
Rainfall in January is expected to result from a low-pressure area, a potential tropical cyclone, and the intertropical convergence zone, according to PAGASA.
Solis also said that from December to May, the country might expect two to eight tropical cyclones.
