The ongoing conflict in the Middle East and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz are undermining global confidence in one of the world’s most critical energy routes, according to Fatih Birol, chief of the International Energy Agency.
Birol warned that even if the key waterway reopens swiftly, the global oil market is unlikely to recover immediately, as restoring production, shipping operations, and investment flows will take time.
The Strait of Hormuz carries a significant portion of the world’s seaborne crude oil and fuel shipments. Any prolonged disruption can trigger ripple effects across global oil prices, shipping costs, and refinery operations.
Birol’s assessment suggests the crisis is evolving beyond a regional security concern into a long-term structural risk for global energy markets, one that could reshape trade routes and investment strategies in the years ahead.
The IEA chief noted that the global economy may be entering a phase of reduced dependence on a single export route for energy supplies.
This shift could lead to increased volatility for major importers in Asia and Europe, while giving producers outside the Gulf region greater leverage as buyers seek more diversified supply sources.
The IEA also reported a sharp decline in global oil supply, driven by attacks on energy infrastructure and restrictions on tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz.
Birol said these developments are likely to result in tighter supply conditions, firmer oil prices, and a slower recovery—even if a ceasefire or diplomatic resolution is achieved.
The current situation reflects a broader trend of energy markets moving away from reliance on single chokepoints, following earlier disruptions in the Red Sea, the Russia-Ukraine war, and recurring tensions in the Gulf.
Analysts say the crisis could accelerate efforts to diversify energy logistics through longer shipping routes, increased storage capacity, expanded strategic reserves, and greater investment in non-Gulf oil production.
Birol also emphasized that restarting oil output in conflict-affected areas is a complex process, requiring infrastructure repairs, secure shipping access, insurance coverage, and fresh capital, factors that can delay recovery well beyond the end of hostilities.
In its latest monthly oil market report, the IEA said disruptions linked to Middle East attacks and tighter tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz significantly reduced global oil supply in March, highlighting how rapidly geopolitical tensions can reshape global energy dynamics.
