Economic and migration analysts project that around 300,000 to 400,000 overseas Filipino workers (OFW) will likely bear the brunt of global economic downturn due to the coronavirus pandemic and continued decline of oil prices.
Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development (ACERD) Director Alvin P. Ang and Institute for Migration and Development Issues (IMDI) Executive Director Jeremaiah M. Opiniano warned government agencies and policy makers to act swiftly as layoffs and pay cuts will hard hit OFWs, specially those in the Middle East, which has the largest concentration of Filipino migrant workers, against the backdrop of these two unprecedented circumstances.
This in turn, as reported by Business World, will likely cut the remittances from OFWs by 10 to 20 percent. This accounts for as much as $3 billion to $6 billion “the steepest decline in remittances in Philippine migration history”, according to Ang and Opiniano during an Ateneo de Manila University (ADMU) policy brief.
When this trend continues, it might lead to slow consumption which is the primary driver of the Philippine economy, the two explained.
“With overseas Filipinos’ remittances fueling national consumption, we can lose 20 percent to 40 percent of consumption due to the pass-through effect of remittances,” said Ang.
Their forecast is based on the data cited by Overseas Workers Welfare Administration chief Hans Cacdac that more than 10,000 OFWs including seafarers have returned to the country since the repatriation started.
This excludes the 4000 to 5000 OFWs who were caught by the travel ban in Luzon. Most of them are repatriated seafarers and OFWs affected by the suspension of inbound flights in their destination countries.
