Most of Metro Manila residents are on their fourth day of government-imposed community quarantine: Their work or businesses had been disrupted, classes and religious activities suspended, and most importantly, humanity’s need for physical closeness and touch is dramatically compromised.
When is this outbreak going to end? And how bad will it get?
Scientists all over the world are grappling for answers, too.
Epidemiologists look at the historical performance of previous outbreaks such as the Spanish Flu epidemic in 1918, which killed 50 million people and considered “the medical holocaust of our time.” Both viruses cause the same symptoms — fever, colds, and cough.
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Thus, when scientists mapped the timeline when the epidemic doubled in size in China — it appeared that COVID-19 spreads the same way as Spanish Flu.
In the early stages of infection, COVID-19 doubles every 7.4 days. And if they follow the calculation of the New England Journal of Medicine that infected people who became ill is estimated to have infected 2.2 others, One big difference though with Spanish flu from COVID-19 is that the symptoms manifest slowly for patients who become infected by the novel coronavirus.
Nonetheless, medical history shows that St. Louis, USA averted the second wave of the Spanish flu outbreak within its borders by closing schools, shuttering theaters and banning public gatherings. St. Louis public health officials took the beating from businesses but later on got a commendation for “flattening the curve” of the epidemic compared to other neighboring states.
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China imposed the same stringent measure and went further by closing the borders of the Hubei province where the COVID-19 outbreak started. The World Health Organization said the outbreak peaked sometime between January 23 and February 2.
By the second week of March, China declared that the number of new cases fell to single digits for the first time. “Broadly speaking, the peak of the epidemic has passed for China. The increase of new cases is falling.”
Zhong Nanshan, senior medical adviser of the Chinese government, said if other governments follow WHO instructions and intervene on a national scale, the outbreak globally “could be over by June.”
“My estimate of June is based on scenarios that all countries take positive measures. But if some countries do not treat the infectiousness and harmfulness seriously, and intervene strongly, it would last longer,” the 83-year epidemiologist told a group of US medical experts.
