Tel Aviv University Head of Security Studies Programme Professor Isaac Ben-Israel claims that the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) disappears, with or without intervention, after a period of 70 days.
The Israel-based expert stated that the virus peaks at 40 days before it rapidly declines, based on his calculations on patterns of daily new infections on percentages of the actual total numbers of COVID-19 cases.
“Surprisingly, this pattern is common to countries that have taken a severe lockdown, including the paralysis of the economy, as well as to countries that implemented a far more lenient policy and have continued in ordinary life,” said Ben-Israel from his own published article.
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However, reports from Mirror noted that Ben-Israel did not use any specific countries as his baseline. His assumptions also conflict measures done by different countries in the world as no same country has implemented the same social distancing regulations, making it difficult for comparisons.
In addition, the professor also stated that he didn’t have any explanations as to how the virus would die without interventions: “”There are all kinds of speculations. Maybe it’s related to climate, or the virus has a life-span of its own.”
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Cambridge University Hospital Infectious Diseases Consultant Professor Babak Javid, in a report from Mirror, said that the claims are unfounded due to the difference of dynamics of transmission in various aspects.
“To suggest that mitigation measures are irrelevant to the trajectory of the spread of the virus doesn’t take into account the fundamental concept of the dynamics of transmission of an infectious disease within infectious, susceptible and immune individuals in a population,” said Javid.
