The tandem of Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Sen. Raffy Tulfo received 44 percent support in a hypothetical 2028 presidential–vice presidential pairing, slightly ahead of the 40 percent garnered by Vice President Sara Duterte and Sen. Imee Marcos, according to a Tugon ng Masa survey by OCTA Research.
The March 19 to 25, 2026 survey involved face-to-face interviews with 1,200 probability-based respondents aged 18 and above. It carries a ±3 percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level.
About 16 percent of respondents remained undecided, which OCTA said reflects a sizable portion of the electorate still uncommitted to either tandem.
Respondents were asked: “If the May 2028 elections were to be held today and the following are the tandems for president and vice president, which tandem would you vote for?”
OCTA noted that while the four-point lead is within the survey’s margin of error and should be interpreted with caution, it nonetheless suggests a more competitive tandem landscape heading into 2026.
It is the first OCTA Tugon ng Masa survey showing a Robredo-led tandem overtaking a Duterte–Marcos pairing in a direct hypothetical preference test. Previous surveys over the past year had consistently placed the Duterte–Marcos tandem ahead by 15 to 25 percentage points.
Regionally, Robredo–Tulfo posted strong support in the National Capital Region at 61 percent and Balance Luzon at 57 percent, while Duterte–Marcos remained dominant in Mindanao with 86 percent.
OCTA said the Visayas and Balance Luzon are emerging as key battlegrounds that could shape the eventual electoral outcome.
By socioeconomic class, Robredo–Tulfo led among Class D respondents with 47 percent support, while Duterte–Marcos maintained an edge among Class E with 51 percent.
In an earlier interview, Robredo ruled out a 2028 national run, saying she intends to seek a second term as Naga City mayor. Tulfo has also previously said he does not plan to run in the 2028 elections.
