British banking giant HSBC Asia economics research head Frederic Neumann has stated that the impact of the uncertainty brought about by the policies to be implemented by the Trump administration will be less in some countries like the Philippines.
“Indonesia, the Philippines and India are likely to be more shielded from the Trump effect given their low debt and low export exposures. By contrast, Malaysia, China, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand should be more affected,” Neumann was quoted by the Philippine Star.
Neumann said the Bank of Japan is emerging as a winner with a weaker yen.
“In sum, 2017 looks like it’ll be the most difficult for the region since 2009. It’s not, of course, entirely the president-elect’s fault – his administration, after all, hasn’t even outlined a detailed policy agenda yet, let alone taken the reins of power. Plus, Asia’s travails are partly self-inflicted,” Neumann said.
Neumann said, the Trump administration could adopt a more protectionist stance as he vowed to shelve the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement.
Likewise, HSBC sees the US Federal Reserves hiking rates three times next year.
“This amounts to a stiff headwind for Asian economies that have come to rely on rapid credit growth to sustain demand in recent years,” he said.
The economist also cited the continued weakening of the regional currencies against the dollar due to the impending interest rate increase.
Debt watchers Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service earlier said the policy pronouncements of US president-elect Donald Trump raises global uncertainties affecting trading partners including the Philippines.
