The Philippines might suffer an estimated Php93 billion to Php187 billion of foregone gross value added (GVA) if the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) will persist until June this year.
This is the estimates presented by National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Undersecretary Rosemarie Edillon during the Senate Economic Affairs joint with Health and Demography hearing on Monday.
Usec. Edillon explained that there’s a projected reduction of tourist arrivals of about 1.42 million in June which will have a direct impact in the tourism sector.
Most of the revenue losses were from the Chinese tourist market that accounts for 22 percent of the total tourist arrivals in the country.
Other markets from South Korea, Macau, Hong Kong, and other sources account for 10 percent.
If this goes on, Edillon said there will also be 30,000 to 50,000 potential losses in jobs.
However, Senator Imee Marcos questioned the low estimates of job losses by NEDA.
“The estimates of job losses, to my mind, are very, very conservative and inadequate,” Marcos told the NEDA official.
Marcos citing data from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) that says potential job losses would reach about 252,000 and a $1.93 billion losses in gross domestic product (GDP).
“Hindi magandang magplano sa magandang scenario. Magandang magplano sa pinaka-worst case,” she added.
NEDA’s report, according to Usec. Edillon does not include the projected losses from the Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) saying they still have to check the scenario outside the country.
Senator Nancy Binay asked NEDA to submit to the committee the full report adding that the impact on the outbreak of COVID-19 is not only limited to the tourism and manufacturing sector.
NEDA also presented the different programs that different government agencies may offer to affected businesses especially the small and medium enterprises (SMEs), as well as the labor market interventions for those who will be displaced by this.
